| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Estoril Praia | 33 | -9 | 36 |
| 14 | Vizela | 33 | -18 | 33 |
| 15 | Arouca | 33 | -22 | 31 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Vizela | 33 | -18 | 33 |
| 15 | Arouca | 33 | -22 | 31 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 33 | -17 | 29 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vizela would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vizela | Draw | Arouca |
| 37.36% | 26.6% | 36.04% |
| Both teams to score 52.21% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.26% | 52.74% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.63% | 74.37% |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.64% | 27.36% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.18% | 62.82% |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.87% | 28.13% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.19% | 63.81% |
| Score Analysis |
| Vizela | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 9.98% 2-1 @ 8.2% 2-0 @ 6.46% 3-1 @ 3.54% 3-0 @ 2.79% 3-2 @ 2.25% 4-1 @ 1.15% 4-0 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.08% Total : 37.36% | 1-1 @ 12.65% 0-0 @ 7.7% 2-2 @ 5.2% 3-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.6% | 0-1 @ 9.76% 1-2 @ 8.02% 0-2 @ 6.19% 1-3 @ 3.39% 0-3 @ 2.62% 2-3 @ 2.2% 1-4 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.79% Total : 36.04% |