Major League Soccer

Apr 24, 2022 at 10pm UK

Yankee Stadium

NY City
5 - 4
Toronto

Castellanos (38'), Andrade (49'), Rodriguez (54'), Parks (58'), Pereira (75')
Acevedo (40'), Morales (83')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Jimenez (13', 27'), Kerr (87'), Bradley (90+1')
Jimenez (44')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and Toronto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 74.05%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 10.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 3-0 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.02%), while for a Toronto win it was 1-2 (3.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.

Result
New York City FC	Draw	Toronto
74.05%	15.37%	10.59%

Both teams to score 54.88%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.06%

31.94%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.5%

53.5%

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.65%

7.35%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

73.47%

26.53%

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.23%

40.77%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.65%

77.35%

Score Analysis

New York City FC 74.05%

Toronto 10.59%

Draw 15.37%

New York City FC	Draw	Toronto
2-0 @ 10.21% 2-1 @ 9.16% 3-0 @ 8.89% 3-1 @ 7.98% 1-0 @ 7.82% 4-0 @ 5.8% 4-1 @ 5.21% 3-2 @ 3.58% 5-0 @ 3.03% 5-1 @ 2.72% 4-2 @ 2.34% 6-0 @ 1.32% 5-2 @ 1.22% 6-1 @ 1.18% Other @ 3.59% Total : 74.05%	1-1 @ 7.02% 2-2 @ 4.11% 0-0 @ 3% 3-3 @ 1.07% Other @ 0.17% Total : 15.37%	1-2 @ 3.15% 0-1 @ 2.69% 2-3 @ 1.23% 0-2 @ 1.21% 1-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.37% Total : 10.59%