Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 51.71%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 24.4% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Toronto win was 0-1 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.