Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 40.32%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 35.07% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.17%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 1-2 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that DC United would win this match.