| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | New York City FC | 13 | 16 | 26 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Union | 14 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 14 | 7 | 23 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Portland Timbers | 15 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 14 | -6 | 14 |
| 9 | Chivas USA | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 65.77%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 16.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.4%) and 3-1 (7.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.86%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 1-2 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 65.77% | 18.05% | 16.18% |
| Both teams to score 61.7% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.84% | 31.16% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.42% | 52.58% |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.1% | 8.89% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.58% | 30.42% |
| San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.73% | 32.27% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.23% | 68.77% |
| Score Analysis |
| New York City FC | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 2-1 @ 9.51% 2-0 @ 8.4% 3-1 @ 7.67% 1-0 @ 6.95% 3-0 @ 6.78% 4-1 @ 4.64% 3-2 @ 4.34% 4-0 @ 4.1% 4-2 @ 2.62% 5-1 @ 2.25% 5-0 @ 1.99% 5-2 @ 1.27% 4-3 @ 0.99% 6-1 @ 0.91% Other @ 3.37% Total : 65.77% | 1-1 @ 7.86% 2-2 @ 5.38% 0-0 @ 2.87% 3-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 0.31% Total : 18.05% | 1-2 @ 4.44% 0-1 @ 3.25% 2-3 @ 2.03% 0-2 @ 1.84% 1-3 @ 1.68% Other @ 2.95% Total : 16.18% |