CONCACAF Champions League | First Round | 1st Leg

Feb 20, 2025 at 3am UK

Estadio Tiburcio Carias Andino

Motagua
1 - 4
Cincinnati

Auzmendi (41', 41')
Adonys Mejia Estrada (34'), Adonys Mejia Estrada (34'), Martinez (71'), Martinez (71')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Bucha (28', 28', 77', 77'), Denkey (49', 49'), Evander (87', 87')
Alberto Mejia Cruz (21'), Alberto Mejia Cruz (21'), Nwobodo (45+1'), Nwobodo (45+1'), Celentano (70'), Celentano (70')

Coverage of the CONCACAF Champions League First Round clash between Motagua and FC Cincinnati.

Form, Standings, Stats

FC Cincinnati

All competitions

Last Game: Cincinnati 0-0 NY City (5-6 pen.)
Saturday, November 9 at 9pm in MLS Playoffs

Next Game: Cincinnati vs. NY Red Bulls
Sunday, February 23 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 47.86%. A win for Motagua had a probability of 27.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.44%) and 0-2 (8.01%). The likeliest Motagua win was 1-0 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.

Result
Motagua	Draw	FC Cincinnati
27.62% ( 0.17)	24.52% ( 0.02)	47.86% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 55.67% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.25% (

0.01)

46.75% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.99% (

0.01)

69.01% (

-0.01)

Motagua Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.24% (

0.14)

30.76% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.97% (

0.16)

67.02% (

-0.17)

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.4% (

-0.08)

19.6% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.45% (

-0.13)

51.54% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

Motagua 27.62%

FC Cincinnati 47.86%

Draw 24.52%

Motagua	Draw	FC Cincinnati
1-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 6.83% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 4.19% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.68% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.19% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.98% Total : 27.62%	1-1 @ 11.58% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.03% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.52%	0-1 @ 9.83% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 9.44% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.01% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 5.13% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 4.35% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.02% 1-4 @ 2.09% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.77% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.23% ( -0) Other @ 3% Total : 47.86%