Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.42%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.

Result
Qarabag FK	Draw	Lech Poznan
29.94% ( -0.01)	23.87%	46.18% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 59.51% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.58%

42.41% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.18% (

-0)

64.82% (

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.08% (

-0.01)

26.92% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.76% (

-0.01)

62.24% (

0.01)

Lech Poznan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.42% (

0.01)

18.58% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.15% (

0.01)

49.84% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Qarabag FK 29.95%

Lech Poznan 46.18%

Draw 23.87%

Qarabag FK	Draw	Lech Poznan
2-1 @ 7.25% ( -0) 1-0 @ 6.56% ( -0) 2-0 @ 4.31% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.17% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.67% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.88% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.04% ( -0) Other @ 3.06% Total : 29.95%	1-1 @ 11.04% 2-2 @ 6.1% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.87%	1-2 @ 9.3% ( 0) 0-1 @ 8.42% ( 0) 0-2 @ 7.08% ( 0) 1-3 @ 5.22% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.98% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.42% 1-4 @ 2.2% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.67% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.44% ( 0) Other @ 3.46% Total : 46.18%