Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 41.86%. A win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 36.18% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.19%) and 1-3 (5.14%). The likeliest Lech Poznan win was 2-1 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Lech Poznan would win this match.