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Champions League

Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 5, 2022 at 7pm UK
INEA Stadion
Qarabag

Lech Poznan
1 - 0
Qarabag FK

Ishak (41')
Karlstrom (48'), Szymczak (87')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Richard (36'), Andrade (48')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Lech Poznan and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lech Poznan

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Last Game: Lech Poznan 0-2 Rangers
Thursday, December 10 at 5.55pm in Europa League
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Qarabag FK

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Last Game: Qarabag FK 0-3 Marseille
Thursday, February 24 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 41.86%. A win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 36.18% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.19%) and 1-3 (5.14%). The likeliest Lech Poznan win was 2-1 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Lech Poznan would win this match.

Result
Lech PoznanDrawQarabag FK
36.18% (0.0010000000000048 0)21.96% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)41.86% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Both teams to score 69.29% (-0.02000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.33% (-0.025000000000006 -0.03)30.67% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
48.01% (-0.029000000000003 -0.03)51.99% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Lech Poznan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.08% (-0.012 -0.01)17.92% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.26% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)48.73% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.42% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)15.58% (0.012 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.45% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)44.55% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Lech Poznan 36.18%
    Qarabag FK 41.86%
    Draw 21.96%
Lech PoznanDrawQarabag FK
2-1 @ 7.67% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-0 @ 4.8% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-1 @ 4.4% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-0 @ 4.13% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 4.09% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 2.37% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-1 @ 1.89%
4-2 @ 1.76% (-0.002 -0)
4-3 @ 1.09% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.02%
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 36.18%
1-1 @ 8.93% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
2-2 @ 7.13% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-0 @ 2.79% (0.004 0)
3-3 @ 2.53% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 21.96%
1-2 @ 8.3% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-1 @ 5.19% (0.0049999999999999 0)
1-3 @ 5.14% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 4.83% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-3 @ 4.42% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-3 @ 2.99%
1-4 @ 2.39% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-4 @ 2.05% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-4 @ 1.39%
3-4 @ 1.18% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 3.99%
Total : 41.86%

How you voted: Lech Poznan vs Qarabag FK

Lech Poznan
53.4%
Draw
20.5%
Qarabag FK
26.0%
73