We said: Juventude 0-2 Atletico Mineiro
Despite a recent reshuffle in attack, Juventude have been lightweight up front this season, so have turned to a more defensive approach under new management. However, the attacking options available to Atletico are far superior, and they should post a third straight Serie A win without too much trouble.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 56.39%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Juventude had a probability of 18.94%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.38%) and 1-2 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Juventude win it was 1-0 (7.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.