Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 65.43%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 13.84%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.51%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.83%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (5%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.