World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Mar 24, 2022 at 11.30pm UK

Paraguay
3 - 1
Ecuador

Morales (10'), Hincapie (45+6' og.), Almiron (54')
Almiron (32'), Riveros (39'), Cubas (43'), Gomez (81'), Villasanti (90+1')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Caicedo (85' pen.)
Valencia (53'), Torres (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Paraguay and Ecuador, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Paraguay

Last Six:

Last Game: Japan 4-1 Paraguay
Thursday, June 2 at 11am in International Friendlies

Next Game: South Korea vs. Paraguay
Friday, June 10 at 12pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	4	5	10
2	Uruguay	4	2	7
3	Paraguay	4	2	6
4	Chile	4	-1	5
5	Bolivia	4	-8	0

Ecuador

Last Six:

Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Ecuador
Monday, June 6 at 12.30am in International Friendlies

Next Game: Ecuador vs. Mali
Sunday, June 12 at 12.30am in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	4	8	10
2	Peru	4	-2	7
3	Colombia	4	-1	4
4	Ecuador	4	-1	3
5	Venezuela	4	-4	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paraguay win with a probability of 47.12%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 24.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paraguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.63%) and 2-1 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.82%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (9.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paraguay would win this match.

Result
Paraguay	Draw	Ecuador
47.12%	27.93%	24.94%

Both teams to score 43.59%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.62%

61.38%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.72%

81.28%

Paraguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.82%

26.17%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.74%

61.25%

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.05%

40.95%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.49%

77.51%

Score Analysis

Paraguay 47.12%

Ecuador 24.94%

Draw 27.92%

Paraguay	Draw	Ecuador
1-0 @ 14.36% 2-0 @ 9.63% 2-1 @ 8.6% 3-0 @ 4.3% 3-1 @ 3.84% 3-2 @ 1.72% 4-0 @ 1.44% 4-1 @ 1.29% Other @ 1.94% Total : 47.12%	1-1 @ 12.82% 0-0 @ 10.71% 2-2 @ 3.84% Other @ 0.55% Total : 27.92%	0-1 @ 9.57% 1-2 @ 5.73% 0-2 @ 4.27% 1-3 @ 1.7% 0-3 @ 1.27% 2-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 1.26% Total : 24.94%