International Friendly

Jun 12, 2022 at 1am UK

Ecuador
1 - 0
Mali

Caicedo (38' pen.)
Valencia (80')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Furtado (43'), Bebe (62'), Pereira (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's International Friendlies clash between Ecuador and Cape Verde, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

Last Six:

Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Ecuador
Monday, June 6 at 12.30am in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	4	8	10
2	Peru	4	-2	7
3	Colombia	4	-1	4
4	Ecuador	4	-1	3
5	Venezuela	4	-4	2

Mali

Last Six:

Last Game: South Sudan 1-3 Mali
Thursday, June 9 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 52.69%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Mali had a probability of 21.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Mali win it was 0-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ecuador in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.

Result
Ecuador	Draw	Mali
52.69% ( -0.05)	25.62% ( 0.01)	21.69% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 46.39% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.98% (

0.02)

56.02% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.9% (

0.02)

77.1% (

-0.02)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.69% (

-0.01)

21.31% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.75% (

-0.02)

54.25% (

0.02)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.96% (

0.06)

41.04% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.4% (

0.05)

77.59% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Ecuador 52.69%

Mali 21.69%

Draw 25.62%

Ecuador	Draw	Mali
1-0 @ 13.52% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 10.45% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.31% 3-0 @ 5.39% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.8% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.14% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.08% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.85% ( -0) Other @ 3.15% Total : 52.69%	1-1 @ 12.04% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.69% Total : 25.62%	0-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.36% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.47% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.23% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.03% ( 0) Other @ 1.22% Total : 21.69%