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Schalke
Bundesliga | Gameweek 24
Mar 5, 2021 at 7.30pm UK
Veltins-Arena
Mainz logo

Schalke
0 - 0
Mainz 05


Kolasinac (9'), Mascarell (85')
FT

Bell (47'), Szalai (51')

Preview: Schalke 04 vs. Mainz 05 - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Schalke 04 and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Schalke 04 take on Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga on Friday, with the visitors looking for a win to move outside of the relegation zone.

The home team, meanwhile, are likely to head into the match without a manager after sacking Christian Gross after only two months in charge following last weekend's 5-1 defeat to Stuttgart.


Match preview

Schalke 04 coach Christian Gross pictured on February 20, 2021© Reuters

Indeed, Schalke's management appear to already be preparing for life in the German second tier next season, having sacked Gross with the club languishing nine points adrift of safety with only 11 matches of the season remaining after last Saturday's hammering at the hands of Stuttgart.

In truth, the scoreline flattered the hosts a little, with Armine Harit squandering a golden opportunity to open the scoring in the opening minutes and Nabil Bentaleb missing a penalty when his side were 3-1 down and beginning to mount an unlikely comeback in the second half.

However, the manner in which Stuttgart took their commanding lead in the first half was simply unacceptable, with Deja vu occurring at Mercedes-Benz Arena when Wataru Endo scored two carbon-copy goals from corners by nodding in unmarked at the back post.

Sasa Kalajdzic, Philipp Klement and Daniel Didavi added gloss to Pellegrino Matarazzo's side's victory, which ultimately proved enough for Schalke to cut ties with Gross despite the 66-year-old only being hired in December.

Friday's home match against Mainz, who lie only a place above them in the table, almost certainly represents last chance saloon for Schalke in terms of mounting one of the greatest escapes from relegation in European history.

Mainz 05 coach Bo Svensson pictured in February 2021© Reuters

Like Schalke, Mainz opted to change manager in the New Year in an attempt to survive relegation, with Bo Svensson having much more of a new manager bounce at the club he spent seven years at as a player.

However, Mainz were dealt a major setback in losing 1-0 at home to Augsburg last weekend, with the victors benefitting from a major goalkeeping error early in the game for the second successive week.

Robin Zentner inexplicably passed the ball straight to Florian Niederlechner, who had pounced on Niklas Lomb's blunder against Leverkusen on the previous matchday, with the forward squaring the ball for Andre Hahn to tap into an empty net.

Mainz struggled to break down a disciplined Augsburg's defence thereafter, but should find Schalke much more accommodating. If they can keep Harit and Matthew Hoppe quiet at the other end, Svensson's side will have a great chance of climbing out of the bottom three.

Schalke 04 Bundesliga form: LDLDLL
Schalke 04 form (all competitions): DLLDLL

Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: WLWDWL


Team News

Schalke 04 players celebrate Mark Uth's goal against Mainz on November 7, 2020© Reuters

Schalke's lengthy injury crisis continues to harm their chances of gaining a positive result, with Mark Uth, Nassim Boujellab, Ralf Fahrmann, Matija Nastasic, Frederik Ronnow, Klaas Jan Huntelaar, Steven Skrzybski, Kilian Ludewig, Salif Sane and Goncalo Paciencia all likely to be ruled out of the visit of Mainz.

Sead Kolasinac scored his first goal since returning to the club from Arsenal in January, with the full-back likely to be granted plenty of license to overlap Harit down the left flank.

Mainz, meanwhile, will only travel to Schalke without Dominik Kohr and Edmilson Fernandes, with Svensson otherwise having a clean bill of health to choose from.

The 41-year-old may look to shake things up after the disappointing defeat to Augsburg, with Robert Glatzel in line to make his first start for the club since joining on loan from Cardiff City in January.

Schalke 04 possible starting lineup:
Langer; Becker, Mustafi, Thiaw, Kolasinac; Stambouli, Mascarell; William, Serdar, Harit; Hoppe

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St Juste, Bell, Niakhate; Da Costa, Barreiro, Stoger, Mwene; Latza; Glatzel, Burkhardt


SM words green background

We say: Schalke 04 1-2 Mainz 05

We expect the visitors to bounce back from last weekend's disappointing defeat to Augsburg by gaining a crucial victory against relegation rivals Schalke.

While the hosts possess the more talented team on paper, their belief and morale is at rock bottom, with any prospect of them surviving surely fanciful at this stage.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 53.09%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 23.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.76%) and 0-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.19%), while for a Schalke 04 win it was 1-0 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.


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Schalke 04's Matthew Hoppe celebrates scoring their first goal against Hoffenheim on January 9, 2021
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