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Europa League
Marseille
Europa League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Mar 7, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Villarreal logo

Marseille
4 - 0
Villarreal

Veretout (23'), Mosquera (28' og.), Aubameyang (42' pen., 59')
Merlin (13')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Mandi (9'), Comesana (45+1'), Moreno (52'), Cuenca (72')
Moreno (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Marseille and Villarreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Clermont 1-5 Marseille
Saturday, March 2 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Villarreal

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Villarreal 5-1 Granada
Sunday, March 3 at 1pm in La Liga

We said: Marseille 2-0 Villarreal

 Villarreal won on their last trip to France earlier this season, beating Rennes 3-2, but the form of Marseille undoubtedly makes the hosts favourites in this first leg. Twelve goals in just three games since Gasset took charge has breathed a new lease of life into Marseille, and they are set to keep that positive run going here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 48.72%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 28.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.97%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-2 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawVillarreal
48.72% (0.13200000000001 0.13) 23.07% (-0.035 -0.04) 28.21% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)
Both teams to score 61.12% (0.050000000000004 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.24% (0.096999999999994 0.1)39.76% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.88% (0.102 0.1)62.11% (-0.102 -0.1)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.43% (0.084999999999994 0.08)16.57% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.64% (0.153 0.15)46.36% (-0.153 -0.15)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.26% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)26.74% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.99% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)62.01% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 48.72%
    Villarreal 28.21%
    Draw 23.07%
MarseilleDrawVillarreal
2-1 @ 9.44% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-0 @ 7.97% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.16% (0.008 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.66% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
3-0 @ 4.29% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.73% (0.012 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.54% (0.016 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.93% (0.013 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.68% (0.01 0.01)
5-1 @ 0.91% (0.009 0.01)
Other @ 3.41%
Total : 48.72%
1-1 @ 10.5% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 6.23% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 4.43% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.64% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 23.07%
1-2 @ 6.93% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-1 @ 5.84% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-2 @ 3.86% (-0.021 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.05% (-0.01 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.74% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 1.7% (-0.01 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.01% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 0.9%
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 28.21%

How you voted: Marseille vs Villarreal

Marseille
73.4%
Draw
16.8%
Villarreal
9.8%
173
rhs 2.0
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