Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 38.34%. A win for Panathinaikos had a probability of 37.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.8%) and 2-0 (5.8%). The likeliest Panathinaikos win was 1-2 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.