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Rochdale
League Two | Gameweek 37
Mar 18, 2023 at 3pm UK
Crown Oil Arena
Swindon Town

Rochdale
4 - 4
Swindon

Rodney (22'), Lloyd (25'), Odoh (71'), Henderson (90+4')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Austin (2', 14', 74', 79')
Coverage of the League Two clash between Rochdale and Swindon Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Grimsby Town 1-0 Rochdale
Saturday, March 11 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Walsall 0-0 Swindon
Tuesday, March 14 at 7.45pm in League Two

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 27.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.56%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 1-0 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.

Result
RochdaleDrawSwindon Town
27.46% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)26.17% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)46.37% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
Both teams to score 50.35% (0.088000000000001 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.36% (0.121 0.12)53.64% (-0.11799999999999 -0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.86% (0.101 0.1)75.13% (-0.099000000000004 -0.1)
Rochdale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.48% (0.049999999999997 0.05)34.52% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.76% (0.054000000000002 0.05)71.23% (-0.052000000000007 -0.05)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.9% (0.073999999999998 0.07)23.1% (-0.071999999999999 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.05% (0.108 0.11)56.95% (-0.106 -0.11)
Score Analysis
    Rochdale 27.46%
    Swindon Town 46.37%
    Draw 26.16%
RochdaleDrawSwindon Town
1-0 @ 8.48% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-1 @ 6.61% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 4.51% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
3-1 @ 2.34% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 1.72% (0.006 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.6%
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 27.46%
1-1 @ 12.42% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 7.97% (-0.037 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.84% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 26.16%
0-1 @ 11.68% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
1-2 @ 9.11% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-2 @ 8.56% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
1-3 @ 4.45% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
0-3 @ 4.18% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.37% (0.011 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.63% (0.008 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.53% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 46.37%

Head to Head
Aug 20, 2022 3pm
Swindon
3-0
Rochdale
Wakeling (1'), Williams (50'), McKirdy (81')
Khan (41'), Gladwin (76')

Nelson (66'), Brierley (90+1')
Apr 2, 2022 3pm
Oct 16, 2021 3pm
Swindon
2-2
Rochdale
Gladwin (37'), Williams (90+3')
Mitchell-Lawson (82')
Broadbent (57'), Kelly (79')
O'Keeffe (13'), O'Connell (45+1')
Apr 13, 2021 7pm
Sep 12, 2020 3pm
Swindon
3-1
Rochdale
Smith (4'), Grant (33'), Smith (41')
Jaiyesimi (46'), Pitman (90')
Keohane (90+3')
Lund (89')