Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Final

Mar 26, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Ukraine
2 - 1
Iceland

Tsygankov (54'), Mudryk (84')
Malinovskyi (42'), Zinchenko (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Gudmundsson (30')
Arnar Haraldsson (21'), Ingi Ingason (56'), Berg Gudmundsson (90')

The Match

Match Report

Chelsea's Mykhaylo Mudryk scores a late winner as Ukraine claim a 2-1 comeback win over Iceland to qualify for Euro 2024.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Ukraine and Iceland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ukraine

All competitions

Last Game: Bosnia H'vina 1-2 Ukraine
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	8	18	20
2	Italy	8	7	14
3	Ukraine	8	3	14
4	North Macedonia	8	-10	8
5	Malta	8	-18	0

Iceland

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Israel 1-4 Iceland
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	10	34	30
2	Slovakia	10	9	22
3	Luxembourg	10	-6	17
4	Iceland	10	1	10
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	10	-11	9
6	Liechtenstein	10	-27	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 40.52%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 31.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Iceland win was 0-1 (10.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ukraine would win this match.

Result
Ukraine	Draw	Iceland
40.52%	27.85%	31.63%

Both teams to score 47.55%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.75%

58.25%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.12%

78.88%

Ukraine Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.82%

28.18%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.13%

63.87%

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.2%

33.8%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.54%

70.47%

Score Analysis

Ukraine 40.52%

Iceland 31.63%

Draw 27.85%

Ukraine	Draw	Iceland
1-0 @ 12.06% 2-1 @ 8.29% 2-0 @ 7.64% 3-1 @ 3.5% 3-0 @ 3.23% 3-2 @ 1.9% 4-1 @ 1.11% 4-0 @ 1.02% Other @ 1.78% Total : 40.52%	1-1 @ 13.08% 0-0 @ 9.52% 2-2 @ 4.5% Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.85%	0-1 @ 10.33% 1-2 @ 7.1% 0-2 @ 5.6% 1-3 @ 2.57% 0-3 @ 2.03% 2-3 @ 1.63% Other @ 2.38% Total : 31.63%