Euro Champ Qualifying | Final
Mar 26, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
NSK Olimpijs'kyj
Ukraine2 - 1Iceland
FT(HT: 0-1)
The Match
Match Report
Chelsea's Mykhaylo Mudryk scores a late winner as Ukraine claim a 2-1 comeback win over Iceland to qualify for Euro 2024.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Ukraine and Iceland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Bosnia H'vina 1-2 Ukraine
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Italy | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 5 | Malta | 8 | -18 | 0 |
Last Game: Israel 1-4 Iceland
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 40.52%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 31.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Iceland win was 0-1 (10.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ukraine would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ukraine | Draw | Iceland |
| 40.52% | 27.85% | 31.63% |
| Both teams to score 47.55% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
