Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 13, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Laugardalsvollur

Iceland
1 - 1
Luxembourg

Oskarsson (23')
Ingi Ingason (66'), Finnsson (75')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Rodrigues (46')
Mahmutovic (20'), Curci (44'), Martins Pereira (64'), Chanot (82'), Moris (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's European Championship qualifying clash between Iceland and Luxembourg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iceland

All competitions

Last Game: Iceland 1-0 Bosnia H'vina
Monday, September 11 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	6	24	18
2	Slovakia	6	6	13
3	Luxembourg	6	-9	10
4	Iceland	6	1	6
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	6	-4	6
6	Liechtenstein	6	-18	0

Luxembourg

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Portugal 9-0 Luxembourg
Monday, September 11 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	6	24	18
2	Slovakia	6	6	13
3	Luxembourg	6	-9	10
4	Iceland	6	1	6
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	6	-4	6
6	Liechtenstein	6	-18	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iceland win with a probability of 38.34%. A win for Luxembourg had a probability of 33.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Luxembourg win was 0-1 (11.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Iceland	Draw	Luxembourg
38.34% ( -8.46)	28.35% ( 1.81)	33.32% ( 6.65)

Both teams to score 46.54% (

-2.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.3% (

-4.18)

59.71% (

4.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.99% (

-3.31)

80.02% (

3.31)

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.85% (

-6.44)

30.15% (

6.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.7% (

-8.46)

66.31% (

8.46)

Luxembourg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.62% (

2.8)

33.38% (

-2.8)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30% (

2.96)

70.01% (

-2.96)

Score Analysis

Iceland 38.33%

Luxembourg 33.31%

Draw 28.35%

Iceland	Draw	Luxembourg
1-0 @ 12.06% ( -0.28) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( -1.1) 2-0 @ 7.23% ( -1.65) 3-1 @ 3.17% ( -1.16) 3-0 @ 2.89% ( -1.37) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.46) 4-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.61) Other @ 2.35% Total : 38.33%	1-1 @ 13.24% ( 0.69) 0-0 @ 10.06% ( 1.48) 2-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.24) Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.35%	0-1 @ 11.04% ( 2.32) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.88) 0-2 @ 6.06% ( 1.63) 1-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.5) 0-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.71) 2-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.48% Total : 33.31%