Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 16, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Laugardalsvollur

Iceland
4 - 0
Liechtenstein

Sigurdsson (22' pen., 49'), Finnbogason (44'), Arnar Haraldsson (63')
Oskarsson (68')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Marxer (51'), Sele (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's European Championship qualifying clash between Iceland and Liechtenstein, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iceland

All competitions

Last Game: Iceland 1-1 Luxembourg
Friday, October 13 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	7	25	21
2	Slovakia	7	5	13
3	Luxembourg	7	-9	11
4	Bosnia-Herzegovina	7	-2	9
5	Iceland	7	1	7
6	Liechtenstein	7	-20	0

Liechtenstein

All competitions

Last Game: Liechtenstein 0-2 Bosnia H'vina
Friday, October 13 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	7	25	21
2	Slovakia	7	5	13
3	Luxembourg	7	-9	11
4	Bosnia-Herzegovina	7	-2	9
5	Iceland	7	1	7
6	Liechtenstein	7	-20	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iceland win with a probability of 91.35%. A draw had a probability of 6.9% and a win for Liechtenstein had a probability of 1.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win was 3-0 with a probability of 16.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.08%) and 4-0 (12.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.05%), while for a Liechtenstein win it was 0-1 (0.95%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iceland would win this match.

Result
Iceland	Draw	Liechtenstein
91.35% ( 0.03)	6.88% ( -0.03)	1.77%

Both teams to score 26.51% (

0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.4% (

0.19)

31.6% (

-0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.9% (

0.22)

53.1% (

-0.22)

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

95.94% (

0.03)

4.07% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

82.92% (

0.11)

17.08% (

-0.11)

Liechtenstein Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

27.63% (

0.14)

72.37% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

4.23% (

0.05)

95.78% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Iceland 91.33%

Liechtenstein 1.77%

Draw 6.88%

Iceland	Draw	Liechtenstein
3-0 @ 16.1% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 15.08% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 12.89% 1-0 @ 9.42% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 8.26% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.21% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 4.88% ( 0) 6-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 4.17% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.02) 7-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.02) 6-1 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) Other @ 4.79% Total : 91.33%	1-1 @ 3.05% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.89% Total : 6.88%	0-1 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 0.82% Total : 1.77%