Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 56.41%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 19.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.57%) and 1-2 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.26%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 1-0 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.