UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg

Jul 28, 2022 at 6pm UK

Bakcell Arena

Neftchi Baku
3 - 0
Aris

(Neftchi Baku win 3-2 on aggregate)

Donyoh (38'), Silvestre (57'), Saief (62')
Salahli (25'), Stankovic (32'), Yusifli (90+2'), Lawal (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Szoke (4'), Brorsson (6'), Brown (40'), Delmiro (59'), Shpilevsky (88')
Brown (82')

Coverage of the Conference League Second Qualifying Round clash between Neftchi Baku and Aris Thessaloniki.

Form, Standings, Stats

Neftchi Baku

Last Game: Aris 2-0 Neftchi Baku
Thursday, July 21 at 6.30pm in Europa Conference League

Aris Thessaloniki

Last Six:

Last Game: Gomel 1-2 Aris
Wednesday, July 27 at 7pm in Europa Conference League

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	AEK Athens	0	0	0
2	Aris Thessaloniki	0	0	0
3	Asteras Tripolis	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neftchi Baku win with a probability of 36.82%. A win for Aris Thessaloniki had a probability of 35.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Neftchi Baku win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.97%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Aris Thessaloniki win was 0-1 (10.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neftchi Baku would win this match.

Result
Neftchi Baku	Draw	Aris Thessaloniki
36.82% ( 0.27)	27.44% ( 0.01)	35.74% ( -0.29)

Both teams to score 49.51% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.87% (

-0.04)

56.12% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.81% (

-0.03)

77.19% (

0.03)

Neftchi Baku Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.69% (

0.15)

29.3% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.73% (

0.18)

65.27% (

-0.19)

Aris Thessaloniki Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.03% (

-0.2)

29.97% (

0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.91% (

-0.24)

66.08% (

0.23)

Score Analysis

Neftchi Baku 36.82%

Aris Thessaloniki 35.73%

Draw 27.43%

Neftchi Baku	Draw	Aris Thessaloniki
1-0 @ 10.78% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 7.97% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 6.62% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 3.26% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.52% Total : 36.82%	1-1 @ 12.98% 0-0 @ 8.78% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.8% ( -0) Other @ 0.87% Total : 27.43%	0-1 @ 10.58% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.83% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 6.38% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.37% Total : 35.73%