Europa League

Europa League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg

Aug 12, 2021 at 5pm UK

Bolt Arena

HJK Helsinki
3 - 0
Neftchi Baku

(HJK Helsinki win 5-2 on aggregate)

Riski (46'), Riski (60' pen., 89')
Riski (79'), O'Shaughnessy (84')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Mbodj (60'), Harramiz (66'), Nacafov (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between HJK Helsinki and Neftchi Baku, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 47.76%. A win for Neftchi Baku had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Neftchi Baku win was 0-1 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.

Result
HJK Helsinki	Draw	Neftchi Baku
47.76%	24.64%	27.6%

Both teams to score 55.24%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.7%

47.3%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.47%

69.52%

HJK Helsinki Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.13%

19.87%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.02%

51.97%

Neftchi Baku Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.93%

31.07%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.61%

67.38%

Score Analysis

HJK Helsinki 47.76%

Neftchi Baku 27.6%

Draw 24.64%

HJK Helsinki	Draw	Neftchi Baku
1-0 @ 9.98% 2-1 @ 9.42% 2-0 @ 8.06% 3-1 @ 5.08% 3-0 @ 4.34% 3-2 @ 2.97% 4-1 @ 2.05% 4-0 @ 1.75% 4-2 @ 1.2% Other @ 2.91% Total : 47.76%	1-1 @ 11.66% 0-0 @ 6.17% 2-2 @ 5.51% 3-3 @ 1.16% Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.64%	0-1 @ 7.22% 1-2 @ 6.82% 0-2 @ 4.22% 1-3 @ 2.66% 2-3 @ 2.15% 0-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 2.9% Total : 27.6%