Europa League

Europa League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Aug 3, 2021 at 6pm UK

Bakcell Arena

Neftchi Baku
2 - 2
HJK Helsinki

(HJK Helsinki win 5-2 on aggregate)

Bougrine (59'), Mahmudov (80')
Nacafov (20'), Harramiz (62'), Muradbayli (84')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Riski (61'), Jair (65')
Carlos Murillo (50'), Peltola (80'), Tenho (83'), Riski (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Europa League clash between Neftchi Baku and HJK Helsinki, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 46.03%. A win for Neftchi Baku had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.54%) and 0-2 (6.03%). The likeliest Neftchi Baku win was 2-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.

Result
Neftchi Baku	Draw	HJK Helsinki
31.44%	22.52%	46.03%

Both teams to score 65.31%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.84%

35.15%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.84%

57.16%

Neftchi Baku Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.57%

22.43%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.04%

55.95%

HJK Helsinki Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.19%

15.81%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.03%

44.97%

Score Analysis

Neftchi Baku 31.44%

HJK Helsinki 46.03%

Draw 22.52%

Neftchi Baku	Draw	HJK Helsinki
2-1 @ 7.31% 1-0 @ 5.3% 2-0 @ 3.96% 3-1 @ 3.64% 3-2 @ 3.36% 3-0 @ 1.97% 4-1 @ 1.36% 4-2 @ 1.26% Other @ 3.28% Total : 31.44%	1-1 @ 9.78% 2-2 @ 6.74% 0-0 @ 3.55% 3-3 @ 2.07% Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.52%	1-2 @ 9.02% 0-1 @ 6.54% 0-2 @ 6.03% 1-3 @ 5.55% 2-3 @ 4.15% 0-3 @ 3.71% 1-4 @ 2.56% 2-4 @ 1.91% 0-4 @ 1.71% 3-4 @ 0.95% 1-5 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.97% Total : 46.03%