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UEFA Conference League

Aris
Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 21, 2022 at 6.30pm UK
Tsirion Athlítiko Kentro

Aris
2 - 0
Neftchi Baku

Caju (53'), Gomis (66')
Brorsson (24')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Saief (31'), Donyoh (82')
Coverage of the Conference League Second Qualifying Round clash between Aris Thessaloniki and Neftchi Baku.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aris Thessaloniki

Last Six:
Last Game: PAS Giannina 0-3 Aris
Tuesday, May 17 at 6pm in Greek Superleague

Neftchi Baku

Last Six:
    Last Game: Maccabi Haifa 4-0 Neftchi Baku
    Thursday, August 26 at 6pm in Europa Conference League

    Data Analysis

    Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aris Thessaloniki win with a probability of 48.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Neftchi Baku had a probability of 25.12%.

    The most likely scoreline for an Aris Thessaloniki win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.57%), while for a Neftchi Baku win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aris Thessaloniki would win this match.

    Result
    Aris ThessalonikiDrawNeftchi Baku
    48.08% (0.10400000000001 0.1)26.8% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)25.12% (-0.077999999999999 -0.08)
    Both teams to score 46.71% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
    Goals
    Over 2.5Under 2.5
    42.55% (0.040999999999997 0.04)57.45% (-0.041999999999994 -0.04)
    Over 3.5Under 3.5
    21.75% (0.032 0.03)78.25% (-0.031000000000006 -0.03)
    Aris Thessaloniki Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    76.05% (0.066000000000003 0.07)23.95% (-0.067 -0.07)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    41.82% (0.098000000000006 0.1)58.18% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1)
    Neftchi Baku Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    61.43% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)38.57% (0.045999999999999 0.05)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    24.68% (-0.044 -0.04)75.32% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
    Score Analysis
        Aris Thessaloniki 48.08%
        Neftchi Baku 25.12%
        Draw 26.8%
    Aris ThessalonikiDrawNeftchi Baku
    1-0 @ 13.2% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
    2-0 @ 9.44% (0.022 0.02)
    2-1 @ 8.99% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
    3-0 @ 4.5% (0.02 0.02)
    3-1 @ 4.28% (0.013 0.01)
    3-2 @ 2.04% (0.0030000000000001 0)
    4-0 @ 1.61% (0.01 0.01)
    4-1 @ 1.53% (0.008 0.01)
    Other @ 2.5%
    Total : 48.08%
    		1-1 @ 12.57% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
    0-0 @ 9.24% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
    2-2 @ 4.28% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
    Other @ 0.71%
    Total : 26.8%
    		0-1 @ 8.8% (-0.025 -0.03)
    1-2 @ 5.99% (-0.013 -0.01)
    0-2 @ 4.19% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
    1-3 @ 1.9% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
    2-3 @ 1.36% (-0.002 -0)
    0-3 @ 1.33% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
    Other @ 1.54%
    Total : 25.12%

    rhs 2.0


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