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UEFA Conference League

Aris
Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 21, 2022 at 7pm UK
Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis

Aris
5 - 1
Gomel

Gray (16' pen., 79'), Iturbe (28'), Camacho (31'), Palma (61')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Leismann (11' og.)
Makas (33'), Anufriev (45+1'), Sedko (75')
Coverage of the Conference League Second Qualifying Round clash between Aris Thessaloniki and Gomel.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aris Thessaloniki

Last Six:
Last Game: PAS Giannina 0-3 Aris
Tuesday, May 17 at 6pm in Greek Superleague
Next Game: Aris vs. Neftchi Baku
Thursday, July 21 at 6.30pm in Europa Conference League

Gomel

Last Six:
Last Game: Gomel 0-3 FC Minsk
Friday, July 15 at 6pm in Belarusian Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aris Thessaloniki win with a probability of 48.9%. A win for Gomel had a probability of 26.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aris Thessaloniki win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Gomel win was 0-1 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aris Thessaloniki would win this match.

Result
Aris ThessalonikiDrawGomel
48.9% (0.030000000000001 0.03)24.87% (0.056999999999999 0.06)26.23% (-0.077999999999999 -0.08)
Both teams to score 53.38% (-0.241 -0.24)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.78% (-0.285 -0.29)49.22% (0.292 0.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.72% (-0.258 -0.26)71.28% (0.26600000000001 0.27)
Aris Thessaloniki Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.84% (-0.101 -0.1)20.16% (0.107 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.56% (-0.163 -0.16)52.44% (0.172 0.17)
Gomel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.86% (-0.214 -0.21)33.14% (0.221 0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.25% (-0.24 -0.24)69.75% (0.247 0.25)
Score Analysis
    Aris Thessaloniki 48.9%
    Gomel 26.23%
    Draw 24.87%
Aris ThessalonikiDrawGomel
1-0 @ 10.7% (0.1 0.1)
2-1 @ 9.46% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 8.57% (0.046000000000001 0.05)
3-1 @ 5.05% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.58% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.79% (-0.028 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.02% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.83% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.12% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.78%
Total : 48.9%
1-1 @ 11.81% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 6.68% (0.079 0.08)
2-2 @ 5.23% (-0.035 -0.04)
3-3 @ 1.03% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 24.87%
0-1 @ 7.38% (0.044 0.04)
1-2 @ 6.53% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-2 @ 4.07%
1-3 @ 2.4% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.92% (-0.025 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.5% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 26.23%