Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 75.34%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for FC 08 Homburg had a probability of 9.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.04%) and 1-2 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.69%), while for a FC 08 Homburg win it was 2-1 (2.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.

Result
FC 08 Homburg	Draw	St Pauli
9.93% ( 0.01)	14.72% ( 0.03)	75.34% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 54.92% (

-0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.31% (

-0.14)

30.69% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.98% (

-0.17)

52.01% (

0.17)

FC 08 Homburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.93% (

-0.08)

41.07% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.38% (

-0.08)

77.61% (

0.07)

St Pauli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.19% (

-0.04)

6.81% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

74.89% (

-0.11)

25.1% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

FC 08 Homburg 9.93%

St Pauli 75.34%

Draw 14.72%

FC 08 Homburg	Draw	St Pauli
2-1 @ 2.98% ( 0) 1-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.19% ( -0) 2-0 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 2.18% Total : 9.93%	1-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.8% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 14.72%	0-2 @ 10.09% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 9.04% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.98% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 8.05% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 6.07% ( -0) 1-4 @ 5.41% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.58% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 3.26% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 2.9% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 2.41% ( -0.01) 0-6 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 1-6 @ 1.3% ( -0.01) 2-5 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.98% Total : 75.34%