Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 59.92%. A win for Elversberg had a probability of 20.34% and a draw had a probability of 19.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.66%) and 1-3 (7.16%). The likeliest Elversberg win was 2-1 (5.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.