Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 53.79%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Nuremberg had a probability of 23.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for a Nuremberg win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.

Result
St Pauli	Draw	Nuremberg
53.79% ( -0.35)	23.13% ( 0.14)	23.08% ( 0.22)

Both teams to score 55.66% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.38% (

-0.36)

44.62% (

0.36)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.01% (

-0.35)

66.98% (

0.35)

St Pauli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.47% (

-0.25)

16.53% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.72% (

-0.45)

46.28% (

0.45)

Nuremberg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.68% (

-0.01)

33.32% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.06% (

-0.01)

69.94% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

St Pauli 53.79%

Nuremberg 23.08%

Draw 23.13%

St Pauli	Draw	Nuremberg
1-0 @ 9.91% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.88% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 5.35% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.65% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.21% Total : 53.79%	1-1 @ 10.89% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.51% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.13%	0-1 @ 6.05% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 5.99% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.33% Total : 23.08%