Copa do Brasil | Third Round | 1st Leg

May 1, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Universitario da UFAL

CSA
3 - 2
Gremio

(Centro Sportivo Alagoano win 3-2 on aggregate)

Marques Rezende (15', 15'), Marcelinho (87', 87'), Brito Batista (90+2', 90+2')
Rafael Ramos Fernandes (27'), Rafael Ramos Fernandes (27'), Silas (38'), Silas (38'), Camacho (69'), Camacho (69')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Braithwaite (23', 23'), Moreira (80', 80')
Jemerson (27'), Jemerson (27'), Kannemann (72'), Kannemann (72')

Coverage of the Copa do Brasil Third Round clash between Centro Sportivo Alagoano and Gremio.

Form, Standings, Stats

Centro Sportivo Alagoano

All competitions

Last Game: CSA 5-0 Tuna Luso
Friday, March 14 at 12.30am in Copa do Brasil

Gremio

All competitions

Copa do Brasil

Last Game: Vitoria 1-1 Gremio
Sunday, April 27 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 54.77%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Centro Sportivo Alagoano had a probability of 21.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.22%) and 1-2 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Centro Sportivo Alagoano win it was 1-0 (6.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.

Result
Centro Sportivo Alagoano	Draw	Gremio
21.09% ( -0.36)	24.14% ( -0.01)	54.77% ( 0.36)

Both teams to score 49.83% (

-0.46)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.95% (

-0.36)

51.05% (

0.36)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.09% (

-0.32)

72.91% (

0.32)

Centro Sportivo Alagoano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.17% (

-0.56)

38.83% (

0.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.44% (

-0.54)

75.56% (

0.54)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.47% (

18.53% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.23% (

49.77% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Centro Sportivo Alagoano 21.09%

Gremio 54.76%

Draw 24.14%

Centro Sportivo Alagoano	Draw	Gremio
1-0 @ 6.81% ( -0) 2-1 @ 5.43% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 3.22% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 1.71% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.46% Total : 21.09%	1-1 @ 11.47% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.2% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 4.58% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.9% Total : 24.14%	0-1 @ 12.12% ( 0.17) 0-2 @ 10.22% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 9.67% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 5.74% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 5.43% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.57% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 2.42% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 2.29% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.2% Total : 54.76%