Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirassol win with a probability of 37.81%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 34.08% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mirassol win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (10.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mirassol would win this match.

Result
Mirassol	Draw	Gremio
37.81% ( 1.8)	28.1% ( 0.49)	34.08% ( -2.29)

Both teams to score 47.36% (

-1.61)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.26% (

-1.94)

58.74% (

1.94)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.74% (

-1.53)

79.26% (

1.53)

Mirassol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.01% (

0.14)

29.99% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.89% (

0.17)

66.11% (

-0.17)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.65% (

-2.44)

32.35% (

2.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.14% (

-2.85)

68.86% (

2.85)

Score Analysis

Mirassol 37.8%

Gremio 34.08%

Draw 28.1%

Mirassol	Draw	Gremio
1-0 @ 11.68% ( 0.87) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.55) 3-1 @ 3.19% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.23) 3-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.38% Total : 37.8%	1-1 @ 13.18% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 9.7% ( 0.69) 2-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.24) Other @ 0.74% Total : 28.1%	0-1 @ 10.94% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 7.44% ( -0.44) 0-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.39) 1-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.37) 0-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.32) 2-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.22) Other @ 2.71% Total : 34.08%