Bahia
Copa do Brasil | Third Round | 2nd Leg
May 21, 2025 at 11.30pm UK
Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia
4 - 0
Paysandu

Araujo (3'), Jose (33', 45+3'), Nestor (66')
Xavier (16'), Acevedo (63')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Vilela (45')
Coverage of the Copa do Brasil Third Round clash between Bahia and Paysandu.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bahia

All competitions
Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Bahia 2-1 Vitoria
Sunday, May 18 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Paysandu

All competitions
Last Game: Paysandu 0-1 Bahia
Thursday, May 1 at 1.30am in Copa do Brasil

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 68.16%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Paysandu had a probability of 12.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.01%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.32%), while for a Paysandu win it was 0-1 (4.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.

Result
BahiaDrawPaysandu
68.16% (-0.030999999999992 -0.03)19.73% (0.057000000000002 0.06)12.11% (-0.026 -0.03)
Both teams to score 44.45% (-0.244 -0.24)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.8% (-0.291 -0.29)48.19% (0.28899999999999 0.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.65% (-0.267 -0.27)70.35% (0.26600000000001 0.27)
Bahia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.88% (-0.09899999999999 -0.1)13.11% (0.097000000000001 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.24% (-0.197 -0.2)39.76% (0.19600000000001 0.2)
Paysandu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.16% (-0.223 -0.22)48.84% (0.223 0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.16% (-0.16 -0.16)83.84% (0.15899999999999 0.16)
Score Analysis
    Bahia 68.15%
    Paysandu 12.11%
    Draw 19.73%
BahiaDrawPaysandu
2-0 @ 13.21% (0.06 0.06)
1-0 @ 13.01% (0.11 0.11)
2-1 @ 9.47% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-0 @ 8.95% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.41% (-0.034 -0.03)
4-0 @ 4.55% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-1 @ 3.26% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-2 @ 2.3% (-0.027 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.85% (-0.011 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.32% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.17% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 68.15%
1-1 @ 9.32% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 6.41% (0.077 0.08)
2-2 @ 3.39% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 0.6%
Total : 19.73%
0-1 @ 4.59% (0.026 0.03)
1-2 @ 3.34% (-0.015 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.65% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 12.11%

Head to Head
May 1, 2025 1.30am
Third Round 1st Leg
Paysandu
0-1
Bahia

Patric (36'), de Vargas (81')
Oliveira Souza (43' pen.)
Acevedo (11'), Erick (87')
rhs 2.0
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