Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 14, 2025 at 11pm UK
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Bahia

Atletico Nacional
1 - 0
Bahia

Stiven Viveros Rodallega (46')
Uribe (31'), Sarmiento (90+4'), Hinestroza (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Atletico Nacional and Bahia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Nacional

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Last Game: Atletico Nacional 3-1 Internacional
Friday, May 9 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Bahia

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Flamengo 1-0 Bahia
Sunday, May 11 at 1am in Brasileiro

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Nacional win with a probability of 56.82%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 20.35%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (5.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Atletico Nacional in this match.

Result
Atletico NacionalDrawBahia
56.82% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)22.82% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)20.35% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 52.83% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.47% (0.031999999999996 0.03)46.52% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.2% (0.030000000000001 0.03)68.8% (-0.031000000000006 -0.03)
Atletico Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.85% (0.0049999999999955 0)16.15% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.41% (0.009999999999998 0.01)45.59% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Bahia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63% (0.036000000000001 0.04)37% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.21% (0.038 0.04)73.78% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Nacional 56.82%
    Bahia 20.35%
    Draw 22.82%
Atletico NacionalDrawBahia
1-0 @ 10.89% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.93% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.88%
3-0 @ 6.04% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-2 @ 2.98% (0.004 0)
4-0 @ 2.75% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 2.74% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-2 @ 1.36% (0.002 0)
5-0 @ 1%
5-1 @ 1% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 56.82%
1-1 @ 10.83%
0-0 @ 5.97% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.91% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-3 @ 0.99% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 22.82%
0-1 @ 5.94% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-2 @ 5.39% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-2 @ 2.95% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 1.79% (0.0029999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 1.63% (0.0029999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 0.98% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.68%
Total : 20.35%

Head to Head
Apr 25, 2025 1am
Group Stage
Bahia
1-0
Atletico Nacional
Jose (71')
Ramos Mingo (11')

Campuzano (10')