Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 66.04%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 12.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.73%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.88%), while for an Atletico Nacional win it was 0-1 (5.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bahia in this match.