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Brest logo
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 33
Apr 18, 2021 at 2pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Blé
Lens logo

Brest
1 - 1
Lens

Cahuzac (37' og.), Kakuta (72' pen.)
Bade (35'), Haidara (48'), Fortes (54'), Banza (59'), Clauss (63'), Lucas (87')
Haise (65'), Fortes (81'), Lucas (89'), Banza (89')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Preview: Brest vs. Lens - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Lens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Brest take on Lens in Ligue 1 on Sunday, with the visitors aiming to extend their impressive 11-match unbeaten league run and remain in fifth position in the table.

The home team, meanwhile, have a six-point cushion above the relegation zone, so cannot rest easy just yet.


Match preview

Brest manager Olivier Dall'Oglio pictured in February 2021© Reuters

Indeed, Brest missed a golden opportunity to almost end any of their lingering relegation fears by only drawing 1-1 at home to 18th-placed Nimes last weekend.

Victory would have meant securing a nine-point gap to Nimes and the bottom three, which with only six matches of the season remaining would surely have secured Olivier Dall'Aglio's side's safety for another season.

However, Moussa Kone got the visitors up and running in the 11th minute, before Brendan Chardonnet levelled the proceedings 15 minutes later.

Brest desperately pushed for a vital winner, having 22 shots and 64% possession across the match, but Nimes valiantly held on for a point.

Dall'Aglio will be eyeing their home match against 19th-placed Nantes at the beginning of May as another excellent opportunity to seal survival, but every point counts at this stage of the campaign and there is no reason why they cannot pick up at least one against in-form Lens on Sunday, especially with their recent COVID-19 outbreak.

Lens head coach Franck Haise pictured in October 2020© Reuters

However, Franck Haise's side are proving an incredibly tough nut for opponents to crack at the moment, with them enjoying a remarkable time of things in their first campaign back in France's top flight after gaining promotion last season.

Currently in the midst of a brilliant 11-match unbeaten run in Ligue 1, Sang et Or are three points ahead of sixth-placed Marseille and as such are looking like strong contenders to qualify for the Europa League next season.

Despite only having 37% possession across the 90 minutes, demonstrating their ruthlessness in transition, Lens thrashed Lorient 4-1 at home last weekend with a serious statement win.

Former Chelsea man Gael Kakuta's penalty got them off and running after 16 minutes, with Terem Moffi's equaliser seemingly kicking the hosts into another gear thereafter.

Corentin Jean, Arnaud Kalimuendo and Simon Banza all got themselves on the scoresheet to cap a fine win; another one at Brest on Sunday would seriously strengthen their stranglehold on a Europa League qualification position, but they may find it harder to come by with so many players likely to be absent due to COVID-19.

Brest Ligue 1 form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D

Brest form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D

Lens Ligue 1 form:
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W

Lens form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W



Team News

Lens celebrate scoring against Paris Saint-Germain in Ligue 1 on September 10, 2020© Reuters

Brest are without Paul Lasne for the rest of the season due to an ACL injury, but are hoping to welcome Sebastien Cibois, Christophe Herelle and Denys Bain back to first-team action at various points throughout April.

Guion may be tempted to hand Gaetan Charbonnier a start in attack in order to attempt to increase his side's finishing ability, but he is more likely to trust the same XI to go again.

Lens, meanwhile, have been struck by a COVID-19 outbreak, with Cheick Traore, Jonathan Gradit, Facundo Medina, Loic Bade, Ignatius Ganago, Tony Mauricio and Seko Fofana all potentially absent for the trip to Brest.

Only Gradit of those players started in the win against Lorient last time out, though, with Adrien Louveau on standby to replace him in Haise's back three.

Lens' substitutes' bench may consequently be a depleted one, especially with Florian Sotoca still sidelined with a calf injury.

Brest possible starting lineup:
Larsonneur; Pierre-Gabriel, Chardonnet, Brassier, Perraud; Honorat, Magnetti, Lucas, Faivre; Cardona, Mounie

Lens possible starting lineup:
Leca; Louveau, Fortes, Michelin; Clauss, Cahuzac, Doucoure, Haidara; Kakuta; Jean, Kalimuendo


SM words green background

We say: Brest 1-1 Lens

Lens' COVID-19 outbreak will almost certainly have an impact on their chances in the match, particularly with Haise unable to call upon many options from the bench if they are required.

However, Brest are struggling to find wins at the moment, so we can see Lens extending their fine unbeaten run.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 40.88%. A win for Brest had a probability of 33.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-0 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Brest vs Lens

Brest
32.1%
Draw
25.0%
Lens
42.9%
28
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1Paris Saint-GermainPSG30209173264769
2MonacoMonaco30177656381858
3Brest30158744291553
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13StrasbourgStrasbourg3099123341-836
14NantesNantes3195172949-2032
15Metz3085173149-1829
16Le HavreLe Havre30610142738-1128
17Lorient3068163659-2326
18Clermont30410162149-2822


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