In a repeat of the Gold medal match from London 2012, Mexico Under-23s and Brazil Under-23s renew hostilities in the semi-finals of the Tokyo 2020 Olympics men's football tournament on Tuesday morning.
Jaime Lozano's side prevailed in a goal fest versus South Korea Under-23s to reach the final four, while the reigning champions edged out Egypt by a goal to nil.
Match preview
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Defeat to host nation Japan dampened the spirits somewhat, but dominant victories over underwhelming France and South Africa sides saw Mexico book their place in the Tokyo knockout rounds, where South Korea would lie in wait on Saturday morning.
A phenomenal game for the neutrals, Mexico's quarter-final battle with South Korea saw the net ripple nine times at the International Stadium Yokohama, and six of those goals were chalked up by Lozano's men during an eye-catching spectacle.
Lee Dong-gyeong's brace and Hwang Ui-jo's strike saw South Korea's attacking impetus rewarded, but the rampant Mexicans struck through Henry Martin (2), Luis Romo, Sebastian Cordova (2) and Eduardo Aguirre to advance to the Olympic semis for just the second time ever.
Whatever transpires over the course of 90 or even 120 minutes on Tuesday, Mexico will get another shot at a second Olympic medal in either the gold or bronze medal match, but their astonishing record of 14 goals in four games so far certainly has fans licking their lips at the prospect of more summer glory.
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In stark contrast, Brazil's quarter-final encounter with Egypt Under-23s was a much more low-key affair, as only one goal could separate the two evenly-matched sides at the Saitama Stadium 2002.
Thankfully for Selecao supporters, the all-important strike went the way of their exciting prospects, as Hertha Berlin starlet Matheus Cunha notched up the game's only goal in the 37th minute to keep Brazil's hopes of back-to-back Olympic titles alive.
Andre Jardine's side had it more or less their own way in the group stage - collecting seven points from a possible nine en route to the knockout stages - and the Selecao's extensive collection of highly-rated starlets ought to strike fear into the heart of any opponent this summer.
Either Japan or Spain's much-coveted youngsters will lie in wait for the winners of this tie in the Gold medal match, and Jardine has already warned his players to expect another low-scoring encounter for what is left of the tournament, in spite of Mexico's penchant for goalscoring.
During Brazil and Mexico's encounter in the final of the 2012 Olympics, a young Hulk found the back of the net at Wembley in the dying embers of the game, but Oribe Peralta had already bagged a brace to propel El Tri to a 2-1 win and their only Olympic football gold to date.
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Team News
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Mexico will be forced into one alteration in defence as right-back Jorge Sanchez is suspended for an accumulation of bookings, so Jesus Angulo may be required to deputise here with Erick Aguirre a major doubt.
Monterrey midfielder Carlos Rodriguez missed the quarter-final win through suspension but is eligible for this encounter, which could spell trouble for Jose Esquivel's spot in the engine room.
Real Betis starlet Diego Lainez has been forced to settle for two substitute appearances in his side's last two games, but he has every chance of displacing Uriel Antuna here.
Brazil's match-winner Cunha's evening in the quarter-final soon turned sour as he was forced off with thigh trouble, and he will be assessed regularly ahead of Tuesday's semi-final.
Should the 22-year-old not be deemed fit enough to feature from the off, the tournament's top goalscorer Richarlison could be moved centrally as Paulinho comes in on the left-hand side.
Douglas Luiz came straight back in to the side following his suspension against Egypt and ought to continue alongside Lyon lynchpin Bruno Guimaraes here, but there was no room for Arsenal starlet Gabriel Martinelli in Saturday's squad.
Mexico Under-23s possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Lorona, Montes, Vasquez, Angulo; Rodriguez, Cordova, Romo; Lainez, Martin, Vega
Brazil Under-23s possible starting lineup:
Santos; Alves, Nino, Carlos, Arana; Guimaraes, Luiz; Antony, Claudinho, Paulinho; Richarlison
We say: Mexico Under-23s 1-2 Brazil Under-23s
The potential loss of Cunha would be a bitter blow to Brazil for this crunch battle, but Richarlison is showing no signs of slowing down in Tokyo and will not hesitate to punish a leaky Mexican defence.
Lozano's men have attacking quality of their own in abundance, but we simply cannot look past Brazil's collection of talents and are backing the Selecao to take another giant leap towards defending their crown.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico Under-23s win with a probability of 50.75%. A win for Brazil Under-23s had a probability of 26.24% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Brazil Under-23s win was 1-2 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
