World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round

Oct 10, 2024 at 10.10am UK

Adelaide Oval

Australia
3 - 1
China

Miller (45+2'), Goodwin (53'), Velupillay (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Wenneng (20')
Lei (36'), Shangyuan (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Australia and China, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Australia

All competitions

Last Game: Indonesia 0-0 Australia
Tuesday, September 10 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Next Game: Japan vs. Australia
Tuesday, October 15 at 11.35am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Current Third Round Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Japan	0	0	0
2	Australia	0	0	0
3	Saudi Arabia	0	0	0
4	China	0	0	0
5	Bahrain	0	0	0
6	Indonesia	0	0	0

China

All competitions

Last Game: China 1-2 Saudi Arabia
Tuesday, September 10 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Next Game: China vs. Indonesia
Tuesday, October 15 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Current Third Round Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Japan	0	0	0
2	Australia	0	0	0
3	Saudi Arabia	0	0	0
4	China	0	0	0
5	Bahrain	0	0	0
6	Indonesia	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 66.4%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for China had a probability of 13.53%.

The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.1%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.54%), while for a China win it was 0-1 (4.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.

Result
Australia	Draw	China
66.4% ( -10.4)	20.07% ( 5.01)	13.53% ( 5.4)

Both teams to score 47.4% (

2.43)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.56% (

-7.38)

46.44% (

7.38)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.28% (

-7.34)

68.72% (

7.34)

Australia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.91% (

-4.67)

13.1% (

4.67)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.29% (

-10.44)

39.72% (

10.45)

China Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.54% (

5.44)

45.46% (

-5.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.7% (

3.97)

81.3% (

-3.97)

Score Analysis

Australia 66.4%

China 13.53%

Draw 20.07%

Australia	Draw	China
2-0 @ 12.3% ( -0.82) 1-0 @ 12.1% ( 1.5) 2-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.84) 3-0 @ 8.34% ( -2.48) 3-1 @ 6.57% ( -0.74) 4-0 @ 4.24% ( -2.46) 4-1 @ 3.34% ( -1.18) 3-2 @ 2.59% ( 0.12) 5-0 @ 1.72% ( -1.59) 5-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.88) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.21) Other @ 2.83% Total : 66.4%	1-1 @ 9.54% ( 2.38) 0-0 @ 5.95% ( 1.67) 2-2 @ 3.82% ( 0.83) Other @ 0.75% Total : 20.07%	0-1 @ 4.69% ( 1.8) 1-2 @ 3.76% ( 1.34) 0-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.87) 2-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.33) 1-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.44) Other @ 1.23% Total : 13.53%