World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round

Sep 5, 2024 at 11.35am UK

National Olympic Stadium

Japan
7 - 0
China

Endo (12'), Mitoma (45+2'), Minamino (52', 58'), Ito (77'), Maeda (87'), Kubo (90+5')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Yang (18'), Zhang (39'), Carvalho (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Japan and China, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Japan

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Japan 5-0 Syria
Tuesday, June 11 at 11.14am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Iraq	3	4	9
2	Japan	3	3	6
3	Indonesia	3	-3	3
4	Vietnam	3	-4	0

China

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: South Korea 1-0 China
Tuesday, June 11 at 12pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Qatar	3	5	9
2	Tajikistan	3	0	4
3	China	3	-1	2
4	Lebanon	3	-4	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 67.79%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for China had a probability of 13.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.88%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.77%), while for a China win it was 0-1 (3.94%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.

Result
Japan	Draw	China
67.79% ( -0.13)	18.62% ( 0.07)	13.59% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 52.48% (

-0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.21% (

-0.21)

39.78% (

0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.86% (

-0.21)

62.14% (

0.21)

Japan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.23% (

-0.09)

10.77% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.23% (

-0.2)

34.77% (

0.2)

China Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.81% (

-0.05)

41.18% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.28% (

-0.04)

77.72% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Japan 67.79%

China 13.59%

Draw 18.62%

Japan	Draw	China
2-0 @ 11.01% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.88% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.77% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 4.56% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 4.04% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.22% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 2.03% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.8% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.79% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.24% Total : 67.79%	1-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.44% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.33% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 18.62%	0-1 @ 3.94% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.89% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.75% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.28% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.15% ( 0) Other @ 1.58% Total : 13.59%