World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Second Round

Mar 21, 2024 at 10.23am UK

National Olympic Stadium

Japan
1 - 0
North Korea

Tanaka (2')
Ito (60')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Kuk-Chol (20'), Ri (73'), Kang II (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Japan and North Korea, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Japan

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Iran 2-1 Japan
Saturday, February 3 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Iraq	3	4	9
2	Japan	3	3	6
3	Indonesia	3	-3	3
4	Vietnam	3	-4	0

North Korea

All competitions

Last Game: Myanmar 1-6 North Korea
Tuesday, November 21 at 9.30am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Current Group G Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	3	3	7
2	Portugal	3	7	5
3	Ivory Coast	3	1	4
4	North Korea	3	-11	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 80.23%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for North Korea had a probability of 6.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.12%) and 1-0 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.12%), while for a North Korea win it was 0-1 (2.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.

Result
Japan	Draw	North Korea
80.23% ( 0.07)	12.94% ( -0.04)	6.82% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 46.53% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.54% (

0.07)

33.46% (

-0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.75% (

0.08)

55.24% (

-0.09)

Japan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.53% (

0.03)

6.46% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

75.83% (

0.08)

24.17% (

-0.09)

North Korea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.74% (

-0.04)

50.25% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.16% (

-0.03)

84.83% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Japan 80.23%

North Korea 6.82%

Draw 12.94%

Japan	Draw	North Korea
2-0 @ 12.18% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 11.12% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.9% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.38% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.65% ( 0) 4-0 @ 7.62% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 5.24% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 2.87% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.63% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.9% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.8% ( 0) 6-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 3.45% Total : 80.23%	1-1 @ 6.12% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.25% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.68% Total : 12.94%	0-1 @ 2.24% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.48% Total : 6.82%