Asian Cup

Asian Cup | Group Stage

Jan 14, 2024 at 11.30am UK

Al Thumama Stadium

Japan
4 - 2
Vietnam

Minamino (11', 45'), Nakamura (45+4'), Ueda (85')
Sugawara (32')

FT(HT: 3-2)

Bac Nguyen (16'), Hai Pham (33')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Asian Cup clash between Japan and Vietnam, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Japan

All competitions

Last Game: Japan 6-1 Jordan
Tuesday, January 9 at 11.30am in International Friendlies

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Japan	0	0	0
2	Iraq	0	0	0
3	Vietnam	0	0	0
4	Indonesia	0	0	0

Vietnam

All competitions

Last Game: Kyrgyzstan 2-1 Vietnam
Tuesday, January 9 at 1pm in International Friendlies

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Japan	0	0	0
2	Iraq	0	0	0
3	Vietnam	0	0	0
4	Indonesia	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 71.49%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Vietnam had a probability of 11.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Vietnam win it was 0-1 (3.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.

Result
Japan	Draw	Vietnam
71.49% ( 0.03)	17.27% ( 0.01)	11.25% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 49.83% (

-0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.51% (

-0.14)

39.49% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.17% (

-0.15)

61.83% (

0.15)

Japan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.23% (

-0.03)

9.77% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.5% (

-0.07)

32.5% (

0.07)

Vietnam Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.23% (

-0.15)

44.77% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.25% (

-0.12)

80.75% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

Japan 71.48%

Vietnam 11.25%

Draw 17.27%

Japan	Draw	Vietnam
2-0 @ 11.83% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 10.17% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0) 3-0 @ 9.17% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.37% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 5.33% ( 0) 4-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 2.48% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 3.7% Total : 71.48%	1-1 @ 8.18% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.38% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.89% Total : 17.27%	0-1 @ 3.52% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.41% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.01% Total : 11.25%