Asian Cup

Asian Cup | Quarter-Finals

Feb 3, 2024 at 11.30am UK

Education City Stadium

Iran
2 - 1
Japan

Mohebi (55'), Jahanbakhsh (90+6' pen.)

FT(HT: 0-1)

Morita (28')
Itakura (24'), Ueda (48')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Asian Cup clash between Iran and Japan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iran

All competitions

Asian Cup

Last Game: Iran 1-1 Syria (5-3 pen.)
Wednesday, January 31 at 4pm in Asian Cup

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Iran	3	5	9
2	United Arab Emirates	3	1	4
3	Palestine	3	0	4
4	Hong Kong	0	0	0

Japan

All competitions

Asian Cup

Last Game: Bahrain 1-3 Japan
Wednesday, January 31 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Iraq	3	4	9
2	Japan	3	3	6
3	Indonesia	3	-3	3
4	Vietnam	3	-4	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 45.97%. A win for Japan had a probability of 27.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Japan win was 0-1 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.

Result
Iran	Draw	Japan
45.97% ( -1.8)	26.47% ( 0.91)	27.56% ( 0.89)

Both teams to score 49.55% (

-2.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.28% (

-2.99)

54.72% (

2.99)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.96% (

-2.54)

76.04% (

2.54)

Iran Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.25% (

-2.09)

23.75% (

2.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.1% (

-3.1)

57.89% (

3.1)

Japan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.98% (

-0.88)

35.01% (

0.88)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.24% (

-0.93)

71.76% (

0.94)

Score Analysis

Iran 45.97%

Japan 27.56%

Draw 26.46%

Iran	Draw	Japan
1-0 @ 11.95% ( 0.65) 2-1 @ 9.02% ( -0.28) 2-0 @ 8.59% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 4.32% ( -0.42) 3-0 @ 4.12% ( -0.29) 3-2 @ 2.27% ( -0.28) 4-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.26) 4-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.21) Other @ 2.67% Total : 45.97%	1-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.39) 0-0 @ 8.32% ( 0.92) 2-2 @ 4.73% ( -0.27) Other @ 0.87% Total : 26.46%	0-1 @ 8.73% ( 0.78) 1-2 @ 6.58% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.31) 1-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.11% Total : 27.56%