Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 65.07%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Burkina Faso had a probability of 12.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.19%) and 2-1 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.08%), while for a Burkina Faso win it was 0-1 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.