World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Second Round

Nov 16, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

Azadi Stadium

Iran
4 - 0
Hong Kong

Azmoun (12', 15'), Taremi (87'), Rezaeian (90+2')
Khalilzadeh (82')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Nam Yue (17'), Hin Ting (38')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Iran and Hong Kong, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iran

All competitions

Last Game: Qatar 0-4 Iran
Tuesday, October 17 at 7pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	3	7	7
2	USA	3	1	5
3	Iran	3	-3	3
4	Wales	3	-5	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 71.49%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Hong Kong had a probability of 10.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.49%) and 3-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Hong Kong win it was 0-1 (3.78%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.

Result
Iran	Draw	Hong Kong
71.49% ( -0.14)	17.74% ( 0.09)	10.77% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 46.42% (

-0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.92% (

-0.24)

43.07% (

0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.52% (

-0.24)

65.47% (

0.24)

Iran Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.27% (

-0.1)

10.72% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.32% (

-0.23)

34.67% (

0.22)

Hong Kong Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52% (

-0.06)

47.99% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.77% (

-0.05)

83.23% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Iran 71.48%

Hong Kong 10.77%

Draw 17.74%

Iran	Draw	Hong Kong
2-0 @ 12.82% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 9.55% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.01% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.91% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 2.38% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.75% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.82% Total : 71.48%	1-1 @ 8.44% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 3.46% ( -0) Other @ 0.7% Total : 17.74%	0-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.1% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.39% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.5% Total : 10.77%