Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hong Kong win with a probability of 59.23%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Bhutan had a probability of 19.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hong Kong win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.41%) and 0-2 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a Bhutan win it was 2-1 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.