Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bhutan win with a probability of 46.39%. A win for Macao had a probability of 28.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bhutan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Macao win was 1-0 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Bhutan in this match.