Australia take on China in the first game of the third round of AFC qualification for the 2022 World Cup at the Khalifa International Stadium in Doha on Thursday evening.
The two teams are in Group B and will be competing alongside Japan, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Vietnam, with the top two sides qualifying and third place entering a playoff.
Match preview
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As is often the case in the early stages of qualification in the AFC, Australia destroyed the competition in Group B, winning all eight games and conceding just two goals.
Bizarrely, one of those two goals came from Chinese Taipei - during a 7-1 victory - who only managed to score four in their entire campaign and ended with a goal difference of -30.
Graham Arnold's side will now face some stiffer competition on the pitch in the third round and continue to face significant challenges off it.
The pandemic has not been kind to many in the world of international football, but it has made life particularly difficult for Australia, whose excellent record in the previous qualification stage came despite playing just one of their eight matches on home soil.
Ongoing restrictions in their home country mean the Socceroos cannot play international matches in Australia, which comes as a significant blow to a side that has lost just one home World Cup qualifying fixture since the early 1980s.
Nonetheless, they remain one of the favourites to progress to the World Cup finals for a fifth consecutive time.
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China did not enjoy such a comfortable progression through the second qualifying round, finishing second to Syria in Group A and advancing to the third round as the best runner-up.
At the halfway point, their campaign had appeared all but over.
Coach Marcello Lippi quit after a 2-1 loss to Syria, with the side having earlier played out a disappointing draw against the Philippines, but his former assistant Li Tie took over and brought about a change in fortunes, securing four consecutive wins.
Li has built on the work done during the Lippi era to integrate overseas-born and naturalised players who have been drafted into the squad and now has a unit capable of making an impact.
The country has not appeared at the World Cup since securing their one and only spot at the finals in 2002, but the new coach will be hoping to overcome the odds in a challenging group to end the country's two-decade hoodoo.
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Team News
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Aaron Mooy of Shanghai Port FC will finally be able to return to the Australia squad, after having been unavailable due to COVID-19 travel restrictions.
Celtic's Tom Rogic also returns after missing June's second round matches in Kuwait and this will mark the first time the pair have been part of the squad since 2019.
The ongoing restrictions in Australia mean that only one domestic-based player - Sydney FC's Rhyan Grant - has been included in the squad, which includes players dotted all over Europe and Asia.
Mathew Ryan will remain between the sticks, having just joined Real Sociedad, after a loan spell at Arsenal where he played just three games.
Twenty-two-year-old Guo Tianyu, who has scored eight goals for Shandong Luneng in the Chinese Super League this season, is expected to make his international debut for China, and Li has also called up other new young faces such as Xu Xin, Zhu Chenjie and Gao Zhunyi.
The CSL powerhouse Guangzhou FC has eight players listed in the squad, whilst star forward Wu Lei - who plays for Espanyol - is the only player from the top five European leagues.
Australia possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Grant, Sainsbury, Souttar, Behich; Irvine, Mooy, Rogic; Mabil, Taggart, Boyle
China possible starting lineup:
Yan; Yu, Zhang, Browning, Wang Shenchao; Wu Xi, Jin, Wu Xinghan, Zhang; Wu Lei, Guo
We say: Australia 2-0 China
With the return of their main men and a 100% record in the last qualifying round, Australia should prove too formidable a force for China, despite their recent upturn in form. We are backing the Socceroos to repeat the scoreline from the pair's most recent meeting back in 2015.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 41.2%. A win for China had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.91%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest China win was 1-2 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Australia would win this match.
