Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 49.75%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Lebanon had a probability of 23.16%.
The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.52%), while for a Lebanon win it was 0-1 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Australia would win this match.