Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Lebanon had a probability of 33.18% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Lebanon win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Saudi Arabia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Saudi Arabia.