Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a United Arab Emirates win with a probability of 40.63%. A win for Lebanon had a probability of 32.17% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a United Arab Emirates win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Lebanon win was 0-1 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that United Arab Emirates would win this match.