Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Syria win with a probability of 38.08%. A win for Lebanon had a probability of 36.87% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Syria win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.35%) and 0-2 (5.99%). The likeliest Lebanon win was 2-1 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Syria would win this match.