Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lebanon win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Montenegro had a probability of 31.46% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lebanon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.12%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Montenegro win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Montenegro would win this match.